The closing line is the price just before an event starts. By then the market has seen all the news and all the money, so it's the best guide to the true chance. If you regularly get better prices than the fair closing price, you're probably finding value, even before your results show it.
Why the closing price matters
Prices move as news arrives and as people bet. By the off, the market has taken in team news, weather and big bets from sharp punters. The closing price isn't perfect, but over thousands of events it's very hard to beat.
Results take thousands of bets to mean anything. Closing line value shows up much sooner, because every bet gives you a comparison, win or lose.
Working out closing line value
First take the margin out of the closing prices, so you're comparing with a fair price. Then divide your price by the fair closing price and take away 1.
Say a tennis match closes at 2.00 and 1.86. With the margin removed, the fair odds are about 2.08 and 1.93.
| Price you took | Closing line value |
|---|---|
| 2.20 | +6.0% |
| 2.10 | +1.2% |
| 2.00 | -3.6% |
| 1.95 | -6.0% |
Taking 2.20 beat the fair close by about 6%. If that keeps happening across hundreds of bets, it points to a real edge.
Using it to judge tipsters and tools
A tipster whose tips keep shortening after they're posted is probably finding value. One whose tips drift isn't, whatever the recent results say. The same goes for value betting software.
Services we rate for value and tips
Limits of closing line value
- Small, quiet markets have weak closing prices. CLV means most in big, busy markets.
- It's an average. Any single bet can beat the close and still lose.
- Beating the close consistently is exactly what gets accounts limited.
Questions people ask
What does CLV stand for in betting?
Closing line value. It's how much better the price you took was than the final price before the start.
Is closing line value better than profit for judging skill?
Over short periods, yes. Profit swings with luck for thousands of bets. CLV gives a reading from every bet.
Where do I find closing odds?
Note the price just before the start at a big, low margin bookmaker or an exchange. Some odds comparison sites also keep a record of closing prices.