A good tipster has a long, verified record of beating the odds, at prices you can still get. Most records are too short to tell skill from luck. Check the yield, the number of tips and the odds, then work out whether the fee leaves you anything at your stakes.
What you're paying for
A tipster sells opinions on which bets have value. You place the bets yourself, with your own money and your own bookmaker accounts. Your profit depends on three things: how good the tips are, how much you stake, and what you pay for them.
The numbers that matter
- Yield (or ROI): profit divided by the total staked. A 5% yield means 5p profit for every £1 bet.
- Number of tips: the bigger the sample, the more the yield means. See the table below.
- Average odds: higher odds swing more, so they need more tips to prove anything.
- Strike rate: the share of tips that win. On its own it tells you nothing. 60% winners at 1.5 loses money, 30% winners at 4.0 makes it.
- Proofing: were the tips recorded before the event, at the odds stated? Screenshots and spreadsheets the tipster keeps don't count.
How many tips prove a record?
Luck can produce a big yield over a few hundred bets. This table shows roughly how many level stake tips it takes before a yield is unlikely to be luck alone, at about 95% confidence.
| Average odds | At a 5% yield | At a 10% yield |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | 1,600 | 400 |
| 3.0 | 3,200 | 800 |
| 5.0 | 6,400 | 1,600 |
| 10.0 | 14,400 | 3,600 |
A tipster at average odds of 5.0 showing a 10% yield over 300 tips hasn't proved anything yet. Most records you'll see are that short.
Does the subscription pay for itself?
A fee is a fixed cost, so it hurts small stakes most. Here's an example tipster charging £30 a month for 60 tips that make a 5% yield.
| Stake per tip | Staked a month | Profit from tips | After the fee |
|---|---|---|---|
| £5.00 | £300.00 | £15.00 | -£15.00 |
| £10.00 | £600.00 | £30.00 | £0.00 |
| £20.00 | £1,200.00 | £60.00 | £30.00 |
| £50.00 | £3,000.00 | £150.00 | £120.00 |
At £10 a tip you'd be working for nothing. You also need a bank big enough for the losing runs, and every month won't hit the average.
Getting the odds the tipster got
A tip posted at 3.0 can be 2.6 by the time you see it, especially if many people follow the same tipster. A small drop in odds can wipe out a small yield. Compare the odds you get with the odds in the record for your first few weeks.
Bookmakers also limit accounts that keep backing prices before they shorten. If you follow a popular tipster closely, expect that to happen.
Staking a tipster's bets
Set aside a betting bank you can afford to lose and split it into units, for example 100 units. Stake the units the tipster gives, or level stakes if they don't. Don't raise stakes to win back a bad run.
Useful calculators:Kelly criterion calculatorBet calculatorOdds converter
Red flags
- No independent record, or a record that starts recently.
- Talk of guaranteed profit, sure things or fixed matches.
- Results shown in profit only, with no losing months.
- Big yields from a few hundred tips.
- Pressure to upgrade to a VIP tier to get the "real" tips.
Where to find tracked tipsters
Tipster platforms let you compare records side by side before you pay. Check how each platform records tips and odds, then apply the same tests as above.
The tipster platform we rate
Questions people ask
Are betting tipsters worth it?
A few are, for people who stake enough to cover the fee and can get the same odds. Most records are too short to show real skill, so check the number of tips before you pay.
What is a good yield for a tipster?
Over thousands of tips, a yield of a few percent is already hard to keep up. Be wary of big yields from short records.
What is the difference between yield and strike rate?
Yield is profit as a share of everything staked. Strike rate is the share of tips that win. Yield is the one that tells you whether the tips make money.
How much should I stake on tips?
Use a separate betting bank split into units, often 1% each. Level stakes are the safest way to follow a tipster you haven't proved yet.