Most betting strategies fail because they can't beat the bookmaker's margin. The ones that hold up either remove the risk (matched betting, arbitrage), find prices that are too big (value betting), or control how much you stake (Kelly and bankroll management). Systems that change your stake after losses, like the Martingale, don't change the maths at all.
1. Matched betting: locking in the value of free bets
Back a bet at a bookmaker, lay the same bet at an exchange, and the result no longer matters. On your own money that costs a few pence. On a free bet it locks in most of the value. A typical £10 sign up offer works out at about £7.12 profit whichever team wins.
It holds up because the profit comes from the bookmaker's offer, not from predicting anything. The limit is the supply of offers, and bookmakers restrict accounts that only take them.
Matched betting service we rate
Calculators:Matched betting calculatorFree bet calculator
2. Value betting: backing prices bigger than the true chance
A value bet is one where the odds are bigger than the true chance deserves. Take the margin off a sharp bookmaker's price and compare it with slower bookmakers. In our worked example, a price of 2.20 against a fair price of about 2.11 is worth about +4.4% per £1.
It holds up over thousands of bets, not dozens. Results swing a lot, and bookmakers limit accounts that keep beating their prices.
Value betting tools we rate
3. Arbitrage betting: a small fixed profit whatever the result
When bookmakers disagree enough, backing every outcome at the best prices guarantees a profit. Our two way example makes £3.73 on £100 whatever happens. Arbs are small, rare and short lived, and a voided bet or moved price can wipe out many of them.
Check whether a set of prices is an arb.Arbitrage calculator →4. Kelly staking: sizing each bet to your edge
Kelly doesn't find winners. It tells you how much to stake when you have an edge: more when the edge is bigger, nothing when there's none. Most people stake a quarter or half of the Kelly amount, because overestimating your edge makes full Kelly stakes far too big.
Work out a Kelly stake.Kelly criterion calculator →5. Bankroll management: level stakes of 1% to 2%
A separate betting bank, small level stakes of 1% to 2%, and no chasing. It won't make a losing approach win, but it stops a bad run ending everything, and losing runs are longer than most people expect.
3 betting strategies that don't hold up: the Martingale, chasing losses and big accas
- The Martingale. Doubling after every loss sounds safe until a long losing run arrives. At evens, a run of 10 losses somewhere in 1,000 bets happens about 39% of the time, and by then you're staking over £1,000 to win back £1.
- Chasing losses. Raising stakes to win back what you've lost is the Martingale without the name. It makes losses bigger, never smaller.
- Big accas as a profit plan. Every leg adds the bookmaker's margin again. A ten leg acca can carry a combined margin over 60%, which is why accas are fun bets, not a strategy.
See the maths:Acca calculatorOdds converter
Questions people ask
What is the best betting strategy?
For most people, matched betting, because the profit comes from offers rather than predictions. For long term betting, value betting with sensible staking is the main approach that can beat the margin, and it's hard.
Is there a betting strategy that always wins?
No. Matched betting and arbitrage come closest because they cover every outcome, but they depend on offers and on bookmakers not restricting you.
Does the Martingale strategy work?
No. It turns many small wins into rare large losses. It can't change the expected result, which at bookmaker prices is a loss.